A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
